Probability: common misconceptions

If your child says… “Both circled results must happen.”

Ask together

If HT appears, is it inside our circle?

What’s true

An event happens whenever the observed result matches any member.

If your child says… “Prime but not odd means every number outside the odd circle.”

Ask together

Would 4 pass the prime condition?

What’s true

The outcome must also belong to the prime circle.

If your child says… “Events that overlap cannot cover everything.”

Ask together

Before changing the heading, which face had no tick?

What’s true

Coverage and overlap need separate checks.

If your child says… “Heads and tails must have equal probabilities.”

Ask together

Which requirement would one-quarter and three-quarters break?

What’s true

Unequal assignments can satisfy both the range and total requirements.

If your child says… “There are three names, so each has the same chance.”

Ask together

Which name appears on more slips?

What’s true

The slips have equal chances, but the names do not.

If your child says… “Choosing the same pair in reverse makes another committee.”

Ask together

Who joins or leaves when you reverse those names?

What’s true

Reversing the selection order leaves the committee unchanged.

If your child says… “Just add the chances of the two events.”

Ask together

How many times did your addition include the face 4?

What’s true

Adding both probabilities counts their shared outcomes twice.

If your child says… “Neither means one minus the chance of both.”

Ask together

After removing only 'both', wouldn't cases where just one happens remain?

What’s true

Neither excludes every outcome where either event happens.